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May 26, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

We are seeing record low volatilities in bitcoin trading. Most often, this has led in the past to strong bitcoin price rallies as volatility is increasing.

Perhaps also this time?
Or will we see the first exception?

More detailed analysis and up-to-date trading ideas in the subscriber section:Click here

May 11, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

Bitcoin prices confirmed the false breakout. Hence, the short term trend has been down as evident in the above displayed bitcoin charts. Multiple trend lines have been broken and there is multiple and very strong overhead resistance.

1. Further downside of bitcoin prices is likely, if the last red trend line will be broken (currently at 4.87 $).

2. On the other hand, a move above 5.2 $ will turn the bitcoin charts short term bullish again.

This means that currently, we are in a NEUTRAL zone between 4.91 $ and 5.2 $.

More detailed and frequent updates can be accessible in the subscriber section.

April 29, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

Bitcoin prices stalled and turned down over the past days. This could jeopardize the breakout scenario, at least short term. The bitcoin charts above show that we could be seeing a false breakout of bitcoin prices.
If this is a false breakout, there is much more downside of bitcoin prices.
A key trigger point will be 4.73 $ (see chart below). A break below could lead to a short term sharp sell off.
Mid term, there remain good chances for a further advance, but the short term risk could delay this advance for weeks.
Only a rise above 5.48 $ will immediately change the bitcoin chart picture to bullish again.

April 27, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

The weekly RSI is about to cross upwards which would be a bullish signal.
Bitcoin prices remain to be poised for a possible larger rally.
The support levels outlined in the newsletter from yesterday must hold to keep this bitcoin forecast on track.

April 24, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

Nice retest of the former breakout at 5 $. If bitcoin prices move higher from there, there is very big upside. More detailed forecasts in Thursdays newsletter.

April 23, 2012: Bitcoin Charts - Review and Sneak Preview

Today's report covers an example of work that we normally make available only to our subscriber section. Our Bitcoin price prediction and forecasting methods use many tools, from standard trendline analysis, indicator based methods up to complex Elliott Wave theory.

As a review of the past 3 weeks bitcoin charts analysis, we show below three times the same bitcoin charts pattern, but each separated by one week of bitcoin price action.

The first time is when we established the potential that bitcoin prices develop a complex "truncated flat" pattern. The first bitcoin chart below shows the early stages of this specific Elliott Wave Count. At that moment, only wave A and B were developed.

In the second week (see second bitcoin chart below), our confidence in this count was increased as waves C and D were painted almost exactly where we have foreseen bitcoin prices for this stage.

Lastly, the third bitcoin chart below shows the completion of the pattern. And, it also shows the expected breakout of bitcoin prices in our forecasted direction: UP.
Indeed, bitcoin prices rallied more than +10% since from the breakout level.

In case you are interested to subscribe to this analysis and find out where bitcoin prices will go next, we still take a few new subscribers until April 30th, 2012.

Just click here for more info and details: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions.html

First time we established the complex flat count (April 5, 2012)

Same chart with updated prices from April 12, 2012

Same chart with updated prices from April 19, 2012

This series shows very well that our analysis predicted the bitcoin price development very well. The bitcoin prices followed the outlined path in an almost textbook-style manner.
Feel free to inquire about a possible subscription of our service to get up-to-date bitcoin chart and bitcoin prices analysis.

April 1, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

The last couple of weeks of bitcoin trading have not been been very volatile.
There were various indications for small scale rallies and declines. Some of this were false signals.

There are two main scenarios.
1) A triangle, leading to a huge rally (green arrow).
2) A continued correction down as indicated in the chart by the red arrow.
Anything in between is "noise".
The key trigger points will be the turquoise lines.

More detailes and short term updates will be shared in the subscriber section:http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions

March 23, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

This is to share a bitcoin charts and bitcoin price update.

The breakout from March 13 turned out to be a false breakout or a so called bull trap.

Outlook
This means that most likely, we will see another low beneath 3.878 $ before a more sustainable reversal can be attempted.

Possible targets are 3.8 down to 2 $, which is a broad range. We will try to narrow down this range in the subscriber section in the subscriber section. How to subscribe: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions

March 17, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

This is to share a new bitcoin charts update. As indicated in the subscriber section http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions, there has been increasing evidence for a breakout of the parallel consolidation trend channel. We alerted subscribers on March 11: "the breakout already happened, and the past 5 day price action resembles a consolidation of this breakout = a bull flag. And the next likely move is UP."
Indeed, bitcoin prices rallied by 15% within a couple of day on high volume.
What is next?
Outlook
Most probably, the major Elliott Wave III has started, which should propel prices higher and lead first to 7.22 $ (another +40% upside from current levels).
A break above this level could open up an accelerated rally and lead to at leat a test of the all-time-high at 32 $ still in 2012 (another 6-fold increase).
Only a beak below 3.87 $ would turn the picture bearish again.

February 19, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

This is a mid term bitcoin chart update for bitcoin prices.
As expected before, Bitcoin prices moved down after breaking key trendlines.

Outlook:
Most probably, we will see yet another drop to a new low below 3.88 $ before a test of the key lower turquoise channel line.
Then, the mid term trend will be decided:
1) Either prices hold above 3.7 - 3 $, or
2) If bitcoin prices break below this line, there is a high probability for a big sell off to test the 2 $ low from November 2011.

February 12, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

Here is a new SHORT term bitcoin chart update.
Two key uptrend lines (yellow and pink) have been broken down.
This means that there is an increased likelihood that there will be another SHORT TERM SELL OFF for bitcoin prices toward the low 4 $ down to high 3 $ area.

Only a strong break out above 6.1 $ would change this scenario.

February 8, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

Here is a brief update (See text in chart). A break of the key levels seems to be imminent.

February 7, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

Bitcoin prices are still mid and long term bullish: UP from the November low.

However, short term, there are two options:
1) break above 6.1 $ would open up rally potential. First to 7.22 $ and upon a break of this resistance, the 8-10 $ zone.
2) break below the red trendline (5.4-5.5 $) would likely lead to more short term selling into the 3.9 - 4.1 $ area.
Currently, we favor the latter view with a 60/40 probability. EDIT: After reviewing a whole bunch of indicators, we see no bias, it is really 50/50: Short term: NEUTRAL. Waiting for a clear signal above 6.1 $ or below 5.4 $.

February 1, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

Here is a brief flavor on what you can get in the subscription area:
Above is the bitcoin chart when we issued the short term update to subscribers.

Below is the second bitcoin chart, showing what happens to bitcoin prices shortly thereafter: A breakout to the upside of bitcoin prices, advancing +10% quickly.

January 27, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

Very short term outlook:
A move above 5.5 $ activates a double bottom for bitcoin prices, and this can lead to upside to 5.9 - 6.0 $.
On the other hand, a move below 5 $ will likely lead to a retest of 4.64 $.

January 24, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

Overall, our mid and long term forecast is well on track: We see a strong likelihood that Bitcoin prices will rally after the current consolidation phase.
That said, Bitcoin charts show that the consolidation that started on Jan 7 is still in progress.
While the triangle interpretation from Jan 17 has not been fulfilled, the short term picture is quite clear.

1) A break above the downsloping green trendline will open up potential to 6.5 $
2) A break below the red trendline will likely lead to a drop to at least 6.1 $.
3) If bitcoin prices break out above 6.55 $, a move to the Jan 7 high of 7.22 $ is very probable.
4) A break below 6 - 6.1 $ is expected to lead to further downside donw to 4.64 $.

More short term updates will be given in the subscriber section: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions

January 17, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

Here is a mid term bitcoin charts and bitcoin prices analysis.
The uptrend from the November lows continues to be very strong.

As expected, bitcoin prices reached the 4- 5 $ zone and exceeded it in the last weeks.

Since the 7.22 $ high, bitcoin prices are consolidating on a very high level, forming a what looks like an ascending triangle. Typically, a breakout to the upside is expected.

This is also supported by the fact that bitcoin prices are above the 200 day moving average, the first time since 4 months.

We will issue short term updates in the subscriber section: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions.html

Republished: Breakout in the Big Bitcoin Race

As this recent long term bitcoin charts and bitcoin technical analysis received a lot of attention, we are republishing it also on bitcoinbullbear.com. The intent is to enable a fruitful discussion in the blog here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/3/post/2012/01/breakout-in-the-bitcoin-race.html .

January 6, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

This is an updated bitcoin chart. BTCUSD added another 100% over the past 2-3 days, breaking 7 $.short More updates in the subscriber section: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions.html

January 3, 2012: Bitcoin Charts Update

Here is a mid term bitcoin charts and bitcoin prices analysis.
The uptrend from the November lows has indeed been very strong.

As expected, bitcoin prices rallied into the 3.8 – 4.0 $ zone and also fulfilled our forecast to even reach 5 $ thereafter.

Yesterday’s high was at 5.5 $, concluding a 1.5 month rally of +250% !

We will now watch carefully the price action to determine if the rally will continue short term or if there will be a further correction. And we will issue short term updates in the subscriber section: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions.html

December 23, 2011: Bitcoin Charts Update and Gold Comparison

Today, we are comparing Gold and Bitcoins over the past 1.5 years.
It is interesting to compare these two assets as they are both also discussed as store of wealth.
Which one has been the better store of wealth?
Well, looking at the chart below, it is evident that Bitcoin prices performed much better than Gold.
and, even more interesting, it looks like that bitcoin prices are on its way to rally back and beyond the all time high.
If this happens, bitcoin could be the ultimate store of wealth, better than Gold.

December 19, 2011: Bitcoin Charts Update

As expected HERE IS THE BREAKOUT. While 4 $ may be some resistance, it would not be surprising to see a surprise on the upside to 5 $ and even higher, given the strength of the mid-term breakout. More updates will follow in the subscriber section.
http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions

December 18, 2011: Bitcoin Charts Update

Today we are briefly updating the mid term bitcoin charts and bitcoin prices outlook.
An uptrend has formed after the 2 $ lows. This uptrend is very strong and has been tested already a couple of times.
As long as this uptrend holds, probabilities are strong for a rise of bitcoin prices to 3.38 $ and upon a break, reaching the 3.8 - 4.0 $ zone and even 5 $ thereafter.

December 6, 2011: The Second Bitcoin Charts Sentiment Study.

What is Trader Sentiment?

In the financial world, investor or trader sentiment is a way to understand the bullishness or bearishness of market participants.

Sentiment indicators should never be used in isolation, but always together with the tools of technical analysis. At the same time, sentiment indicators can provide chartists the “icing on the cake” and enable them to make excellent predictions in financial markets.

We see two ground rules for the use of sentiment indicators:

Rule 1: Turning points can be accompanied by massively skewed trader sentiment, with extreme bullishness observed at market tops and extreme bearishness at market lows.
Rule 2: When sentiment moves from bearishness (negative values) to bullishness (positive values), this could mean strong upside (and vice versa). Sentiment is not always a contrarian indicator, because sentiment can remain at elevated (bullish) or depressed (bearish) levels for a very long time.

Bottling Bitcoin Sentiment: The “Bitcoin Bull Bear Index ©” (BBBI)
Bitcoinullbear.com has been measuring sentiment through a running poll of site visitors:

What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?

Up
Down
Same as now
I do not know

The data derived from this informal poll is first transformed into the BBBI index and then compared to actual bitcoin price development. Lastly, we create a specific bitcoin chart like the one below which contains the most recent Bitcoin Bull Bear Index (red line) and Bitcoin prices (blue line) from today (click image to enlarge).
The predictive value of the Bitcoin Bull Bear Index is compelling.

In April 2011, the BBBI exceeded 50 for the first time and this was the starting point of a huge bitcoin price rally from 0.58 $ to 31.9 $ in June 2011. This was a whopping +5,402 % rally. This is a good example that when sentiment gets very bullish, there is typically much more upside: Rule 2.

The BBBI made a new low of -40 on August 7, 2011 when bitcoin prices were at 7.72 $. Since then, this indicator never moved below -40 anymore, despite the fact that bitcoin prices fell another -5.7 $ (-74%) to 1.994 $. Again, this is a good example of Rule 2: sentiment turned very bearish and kicked off more downside.

Now to examples of Rule 1:

After a massive rally, people interested in bitcoins got so euphoric that the BBBI indicator reached 81 on June 5, 2011. At this time, we called an impending top in our subscriber section and on June 8, 2011, bitcoin prices topped at 31.9 $. The sentiment was the “icing on the cake” for us to warn subscribers about a major sell off that was indeed happening (and which eventually fell more than -90% ).

In the last stages of the very strong bitcoin price decline over October and November 2011, our indicators showed that bitcoin sentiment was no longer trending bearish. Instead, the BBBI indicator diverged against bitcoin prices. This diverging behavior can be seen often in down markets and it showed us that very likely they will not be a decline below $2 in the near term. Coupled with other indicators we use in the bitcoin analysis, this is why we called out for a potential major bitcoin price reversal.For info: We published this article earlier here: http://hawaiinewsdaily.com/2011/12/bitcoin-sentiment/

BITCOIN WEATHER FORECAST

Since last week, I turned at least into a short term “BITBULL in the SUN” again, as priced indeed broke out and surpassed the $2.8 and even $3 level. Since then, also the bitcoin sentiment has turned around strongly, to a BBBI value of 57 over last week. This could very well be the kick off to a sustained rally (Rule 2), possibly to new highs above $32 in 2012.

Currently, bitcoin prices are consolidating from this latest huge rally (+57% in 10 days), which is normal. Further upside is likely, as long as we don’t get a “bitcoin thunderstorm”: A decline through $2.4 would raise dark clouds on the bitcoin horizon and a break below $2 could push bitcoin prices down into the low $1 zone.

November 27, 2011: Bitcoin Charts Update

Today, we are publishing the BIG PICTURE view on bitcoin charts that we released to subscribers a couple of days ago.
The logarithmic bitcoin charts show that bitcoin prices are just about to break out of a multi-month bitcoin price channel.
The breakout has not happened yet, so the rally signal is not yet fully active, but a further rise above the trendlines in the bitcoin chart above would in all likelihood trigger a huge rally.
We will continue to update subscribers on the short term trends to inform about if and when bitcoin prices break out of this resistance.
Fundamentally, bitcoin prices may also receive some tailwind behind this weekend's european bitcoin conference that was hosted in Prague (Czechia).
Many supporters discussed heavily the future of bitcoin, including Rick Falkvinge (founder of the Pirate Party) and Max Keiser.
Furthermore, it could be that bitcoin prices can also receive some support from people who got burned in other investments such as stocks and commodities which are falling hard in a third of a third wave down to new decade lows soon.
We are looking forward to the next days and weeks of bitcoin trading as we will likely enter very exciting times.

November 24, 2011: Short term Bitcoin Charts Update

Brief update:
There is a breakout of bitcoin prices above 2.4 $ as we speak which should offer more upside.

November 20, 2011: Short term Bitcoin Charts Update

Indeed, bitcoin prices rallied about +10% after breaking the bitcoin charts downsloping trendline as illustrated yesterday.

November 19, 2011: Short term Bitcoin Charts Update

This is to provide a short term bitcoin trading update.
While the mid term bitcoin charts trend remains down from the June 2011 high around 32$ (see chart from November 15), the short term bitcoin trend can soon show at least a small rally.
Why?
Bitcoin prices are breaking out of the past 5 day trend.
Some upside targets for bitcoin prices are 2.6 $, 2.8$, and 3.0 $ before the mid term trend will be decided.
In case price fall below the last days low of just under 2$, we will likely see an accelerated sell off into the low - mid 1 $ range.
This mid term trend will turn back to a bitcoin prices rally, once we see a break above 4-5 $.

November 15, 2011: Mid term Bitcoin Charts Update

Bitcoin prices fell strongly, which was as expected (see below the November 5 analysis).
Yesterday's decline showed the heaviest sell off ever (with highest volume).

Outlook:
Typically, after a strong sell off, there is a bounce up from oversold conditions. However, as long as bitcoin prices do not exceed 2.8 $, the short term trend remains down hard. Below this level, this may offer great opportunities to sell remaining bitcoins, before bitcoin prices test and ultimately break through the 2 $ level.
Further downside into or below 1 $ is possible.
The mid term trend remains down even if bitcoin prices rise further.
Only a move above 4-5 $ will make holding bitcoins strategically attractive again.

November 7, 2011: What will Bitcoin prices do in the next days and weeks?

After almost 5 months of consolidating / correcting, the key question is whether short term, bitcoin prices will rise or whether they will fall.
We have just exclusively published a Elliott Wave bitcoin price study, which is designed to shed some light on the short term direction. For sure, the next days and weeks will be exciting when it comes to bitcoin prices. Subscribe here if you like to know more:
http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions.html

November 5, 2011: Bitcoin Charts and Bitcoin Price Analysis

We predicted very accurately the rise from 2.04 $ to 3.83 $ last week in the subscriber section of our service. The target was the 3.7 - 4 $ (5 $) zone. This was a whopping rise of +80%.
Now, what is next in terms of bitcoin price development?
While the long term bitcoin chart view still allows for an upward reversal and a huge rally to new highs above 32 $, the short term bitcoin forecast shows a high likelihood for another drop to a new low before the reversal happens.

The next target is the 1.3 $ - 2.0 $ zone.
Only a strong rise, ideally above 5 $ will change the trend to BULLISH again.

October 22, 2011: Bitcoin Charts and Bitcoin Price Analysis

Here is a review of the last days of bitcoin price action in the 10min version of the bitcoin charts:

As forecast in the subscriber section, bitcoin prices fulfilled this forecast to an almost 100% accuracy (the arrows in the chart were drawn before prices hit those values). We will continue to provide short term alerts to subscribers.

October 21, 2011: Bitcoin Charts and Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bubble or No Bubble?

Many news including some that I consider relevant conclude that the bitcoin bubble has burst. (i.e.http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/10/virtual-currencies). While indeed, bitcoin prices have decline heavily since the June 2011 peak, many people are short sighted when only looking at past 4 months performance.
Bitcoin charts do not look like a bubble when looking at the full picture: Since the start of trading. Bitcoin prices rose exponentially and hence a logarithmic chart is an appropriate way to chart the bitcoin price development. When looking at this picture, THERE IS NO BUBBLE.
Instead, the decline from the June 2011 high is a normal consolidation from the exponential rise. This point to the possibility of seeing bitcoin prices rising to new highs above 30$ in the following months.
We will see what will happen in reality, but maybe the Economist will have to write an article.. "sorry, we were wrong: Bitcoin is booming".

October 18, 2011: Bitcoin Charts and Bitcoin Price Analysis

"Rally now or never" was the provocative title of the last post.

It is clear now that we are rather in the "never" territory. But of course this was provocative. There are always chances for a reversal and even new highs for bitcoin prices at some point. But near term, this is far far away...

Of note, bitcoin has attracted many novices in trading. When hearing some of them, they should rather not follow this technical analysis, because they do not understand the implications.

Two examples:

(1) When looking at the last bitcoin chart posted and which we have updated here, "rally now or never" means that once prices break above the yellow channel, we can consider this a rally (but NOT before). If prices break below, then the trend continues down and it turns into a sell signal.

(2) When looking at the longterm trendline (see chart below), the analysis proved to be very valuable to traders who understand the implications: A break below the long term trendline has happened two days ago and resulted into a clear sell signal for bitcoin prices. The validity of this trendline is confirmed by the rapid decline once bitcoin prices broke below this line. Trendlines are never any guarantee that prices will respect them all the time. In fact, trendlines are there to be broken at some point. But before they break, they can offer great help for trading decisions as prices may bounce off them multiple times.

Now, with the break below multiple trendlines on long, mid and short term time frames, it is clear that the trend is DOWN.

Bitcoin prices remain in a bear market that started in June 2011.

We will provide clues on if and when at least a short term rally starts or much more downside is imminent in the subscriber section: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions

October 17, 2011: Bitcoin Charts and Bitcoin Price Analysis

Almost ideal Elliott Wave. Rally "now or never...!"

October 16, 2011: Bitcoin Charts and Bitcoin Price Analysis

Here is a new bitcoin charts update with the intent to forecast bitcoin prices. Here is what the bitcoin technical analysis shows:
1) The long term trend has provided strong support over the past days (see first chart).
2) We rate the bitcoin market as a STRONG short term BUY because we have completed 5 waves down at yesterday's 3.71 $ low and expect as least a strong move up (see 60min chart with Elliott Wave labels below). If the rally shows strong internal strength and develops into an impulsive 5 wave move, the 3.71 $ might have been the low to hold for weeks and months to come. The alternate scenario is that there will be one more low before a reversal.

October 13, 2011: Bitcoin Charts and Bitcoin Price Analysis

Brief bitcoin charts update: Strong support has held (red line) and prices remain above a key moving average for the first time in many days. This could be a bullish sign for bitcoin prices.

October 10, 2011: Bitcoin Charts and Bitcoin Price Analysis

We are at a very important juncture on BTCUSD.

Here is an excerpt of the special update in the subscriber section: Prices are right where the longterm uptrend lines run. The view on the longterm chart, shows that we are likely at a buying opportunity of a "bitcoin lifetime". Very likely (80%), this trendline will at least spark a strong countertrend rally from approximately current levels. But as this trendline is important and prices are more in a consolidation than in a "bubble" state, there is a high probability that BTCUSD starts a rally to new all time highs. When looking at the very short term, we have been analysing two extreme scenarios: Either prices rally from here around 4 $. Or, BTCUSD will do one final dip below 3.79 $ before the reversal starts.

Only a strong, sustained move below the long term trendline will result into a much deeper correction. Still, we do not see this as the more likely option and remain long term bullish.

October 8, 2011: The First Bitcoin Charts Sentiment Study.

We have been collecting sentiment measures for about 10 months now and can now present the first bitcoin charts sentiment study.
What is evident in the above chart is that the sentiment is diverging versus bitcoin prices. This leads to the conclusion that we will see at least a temporary bottom soon.

Methodology: We express the bitcoin sentiment as the "Bitcoin Bull Bear Index (c)".
The Bitcoin Bull Bear Index made a new low a month ago at -40 on August 7, 2011 when bitcoin prices were at 7.72 $, significantly above today (around 4$). Today, the Bitcoin Bull Bear Index is above this low at +17.
This is a bullish divergence.
While this shows that the likelihood is high that a rally is coming, short term, there can be further downside before prices reverse.
We will update on the next developments on bitcoin prices and bitcoin sentiment here.

October 8, 2011: Bitcoin Charts Update.

The decline to below 4 $ was expected after prices broke below 4.4 $.
However, at the same time, the long term bitcoin uptrend is still intact and current levels may be a buying opportunity (as long as the long term trendline holds).
More bitcoin price forecast in the subscriber service.

Historical Comparison of current stable prices vs. Sep-Oct 2010

As evident in above bitcoin chart from September 2010 to October 2010, we already had a very long period of "stable" bitcoin prices last year.
The following break out was massive after that, doubling the bitcoin price in a matter of 3-4 days.

Bitcoin Charts Update October 3

Bitcoin charts show that BTCUSD seems to have more room to the upside.

Bitcoin Charts Update October 1

Long term: UP

Mid term: DOWN / BOTTOMING

Short term: Up from the 4.18 $ low

As forecast on September 29th, the bitcoin charts showed that the long term trend of bitcoin prices is still UP. We also concluded that "the 3.4 $ to 5 $ zone is a buying zone, as long as at least the lower red trend line holds.

Indeed, short term resistance of 4.8 $ was cleared to the upside and bitcoin prices advanced to 5.35 $. After pulling back a little and testing the break out zone just above 4.8 $, another small advance started.

The short term trend is up and we may have already seen the bitcoin price bottom at 4.18 $. As long as this level holds, we should eventually see BTCUSD reaching and surpassing the 32.9 $ high.

There are multiple strong resistances above 4.18 $ as shown in the above shown bitcoin chart.

Bitcoin Update September 30

Strong upturn of Bitcoin prices over the past days as evident in the 2 day bitcoin chart above.
Further upside is quite likely.

Bitcoin Chart week September 17 - 24

Bitcoin prices rose from 4.8 $ on September 17 to 5.6 $ today, a rally of +17% .
This is a strong performance, particularly considering that almost all financial markets are down in the same period:
Gold -9%
Silver -27%
Dow Jones -7%

September 19, 2011: Public Update for Bitcoin Price Analysis

Overall, Bitcoin prices are at a very interesting juncture and people may memorize the "Bitcoin September 2011" in history.

As expected in the last technical analysis, bitcoin prices did not hold the 5.74 $ level. Bitcoin prices fell another -30% to 4.18 $.

Looking ahead, the stabilization around the 4 $ range in recent days, plus the bullish divergences of key indicators point to a strong possibility of a rally.

Technical Analysis

We focus today on the big picture, the long term view.
There is a lot of chatter about the "BITCOIN BUBBLE", but in reality there is no bubble in bitcoins. Definitely not yet. Why is the decline from June no bubble?

1) The bitcoin price decline as evident in the attached logarithmic bitcoin chart looks like a standard correction: The 1 year rally has been much steeper than the 3 months correction. The logarithmic chart is the right way to visualize prices because prices rose exponentially in a very short period of time.

2) The volumes in turnover (not shown here) of the rally is much stronger than the volume of the past 3 months correction.

3) Pessimism has been and still is very strong, as evidenced by bitcoin investor sentimentpoll data and the "doom & gloom" comments in the bitcoin forum. We have been using this sentiment very successfully as contrary indicator: When too many people are bearish, they are not invested and hope for lower prices. As prices may never get lower, they need to chase the rally in some point and the rally gains momentum.

4) Key indicators such as RSI and MACD show bullish divergences (see bitcoin chart)

5) Bitcoin prices have respected the key long term red uptrend line and tested successfully.This uptrend line is very strong support. And even another decline into the 3-4 $ area is still a possibility which would not invalidate the longterm uptrend as we can draw the uptrend line also a bit different (see orange line).

6) Bitcoin prices are on the verge of a breakout above the green downtrend line, which could initiate a strong rally.

Only a high volume, sustained break below 3 $ will make us turn long term bearish bitcoins. Otherwise, there is upside potential to new all time highs, into the 50 - 100 $ area. At the same time, one has to be patient, as the rise to those levels will not be a "straight line".

As always, we update the short term picture closely in the subscriber section.

September 8, 2011: Public Update for Bitcoin Price Analysis

Long term: UP as long as 2-3 $ holds
Mid term: DOWN
Short term: DOWN
Bitcoin prices continue to decline, in line with our forecast. Prices declined almost -50% since our big sell signal ("below 12.3$") from the subscriber section.

Short term, a new low below 5.74 $ in the coming weeks is the most likely scenario and we keep the mid term stance: "Only a high volume move above 12 $ would make us change this bearmarket view in bitcoin prices."
We will update the short term picture closely in the subscriber section and see whether we can help bitcoin traders and bitcoin investors to find a potential bottom earlier.

September 5, 2011: Public Update for Bitcoin Price Analysis

Long term: UP as long as 2-3 $ holds
Mid term: DOWN
Short term: DOWN

As forecast on September 2nd, the break below 8.7 - 8.5 $ indeed led to lower bitcoin prices.
Today, bitcoin prices fell to 7.25 $, the lowest value in 28 days.

Prices can (but don't have to) fall into the 5 $ area and possibly even lower. We keep our stance that until there is better evidence, "Only a high volume move above 12 $ would make us change this bearmarket view in bitcoin prices."
We will update the short term picture closely in the subscriber section and see whether we can help bitcoin traders and bitcoin investors to find a potential bottom earlier.

Click here for the latest bitcoin charts

September 2, 2011: Public Update for Bitcoin Price Analysis

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions

Long term: UP
Mid term: DOWN
Short term: DOWN

The most recent short term break below 8.7 - 8.5 $ will in all likelihood lead to lower bitcoin prices. Most often, those monthly declines end with a "crash" type of decline before a more sustainable low is put in. We see this also for bitcoin / USD.
Prices can fall into the 5 $ area but even lower into the 1-3 $ range. Only a high volume move above 12 $ would make us change this bearmarket view in bitcoin prices.

Click here for the latest bitcoin charts

August 31, 2011: Public Update for Bitcoin Price Analysis

In this section, we will post the most recent short term bitcoin charts, as a public update. For more in depth bitcoin charts analysis, including bitcoin forecasts, please visit the Bitcoin Analysis Subscriber section here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/bitcoin-subscriptions

Bitcoin prices continue to be in a mid and short term decline.

The key level of 8.7 - 8.5 $ is broken.

Now, the likelihood for much lower bitcoin prices is high.

Bitcoin prices will likely test 7.6$ and possible even lower levels (i.e. the 5-6 $ range).

Bitcoin Trading and Economy News

May 26, 2012: The bitcoinica issue was foreseeable
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May 12, 2012: 87,000 $ worth of bitcoins plundered from exchange
May 11, 2012: Bitcoinica bitcoin exchange hacked.. again!
May 7, 2012: Bitcoin Funded Debit Cards

The BitcoinBullBear Index (BBBI)

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I've been enjoying my subscription. You saved me a lot of money by predicting the sell off ."
"Dear S3052, first of all I'd like to thank you for the spot on update! I was able to sell at this morning's prices and buy back near today's bottom."

"Dear S3052, I wanted to thank you for your recent updates. You warned me (and all other subscribers) about all recent crashes and rises that happened. At first, I thought the 10 BTC for two month were really expensive but thanks to your expertise, I easily managed to get those 10 BTC (and more) back just by trading based on your technical analysis and short term updates. Please keep up the great work! Feel free to include this in your feedback on bitcoinbullbear.com."

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"... the fall of bitcoin prices from 30 to 10. You said that the short term is down and gave three targets: 20, 14, and 10. This was spot on with the turn at 10"

"the recent fall from 12.6 to the 5-6 area (ca 5.75). Here, you predicted that on a break of 12.6 to the downside, we would see a fall of bitcoin prices to test the 9.5-10 area, and targets of 5-6 and 2 were possible. The 5-6 target was spot on."

Before we get into the depth of the matter and Bitcoin Charts, let's recap what bitcoin is in the below video.

Bitcoin Charts: A technical analysis methodology that works

Using bitcoin charts, we have a proven track record since September 2010 in predicting bitcoin prices.
Like using chart analysis in commonly known financial markets (i.e. Gold, Silver, Stocks, Currencies, etc.), the bitcoin charts tell a convincing story about future bitcoin price directions.

There are people questioning the value of bitcoin chart analysis, probably in the same way as people question chart and technical analysis for other financial markets. And this is exactly what triggered us to start analyzing the bitcoin charts as early as September 2010.
At the time, we started a thread on the bitcoin forum (link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0).
This has quickly become on of the top and most visited bitcoin threads in the well known bitcoin forum. The bitcoin charts we have published there have been followed by many bitcoin traders and speculators.

We have proven to time the bitcoin market very well, using technical and bitcoin chart analysis. Why are we doing this bitcoin charts analysis: Apart from making this a viable bitcoin business, our purpose is to help people interested in bitcoins investing and trading bitcoins wisely. This is of utmost importance because of one crucial reason: Bitcoin was developed by hackers, geeks, youngsters and programmers, initially as a proof of concept for the notion of the viability of a cryptocurrency. While this has served Bitcoin well from a technical point, many of these people have suddenly become bitcoin traders, bitcoin investors or bitcoin speculators. But, here is the big BUT: Most of them have not been trained on financial markets and trading. This is why we want to help those people making good bitcoin investment decisions.

And we could prove quite well to date that (1) Using bitcoin charts is a viable tool for bitcoin price forecasts and bitcoin market direction, (2) coupled with the right money management, this can help people conquering this still very low-volume and notably still risky bitcoin market quite well.

The quotes from our subscribers support that our service is very well appreciated (see above).